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毛振华:反思金融危机应对得失,推动中国经济再调整、再出发

来源:中诚信     发布时间:2018-12-13     浏览量:1027

12月13日,由中诚信集团主办的2019中国信用年会在香港举行。本届信用年会以“多重挑战下的政策平衡”为主题,港交所集团行政总裁李小加先生、国内知名人民币汇率问题专家管涛先生以及陈东升、梁锦松、张文中等亚布力中国企业家论坛代表出席会议并发言。中诚信集团创始人、中诚信国际首席经济学家毛振华在会上发表题为《金融危机十年:中国经济应对的得失与反思》的主旨演讲,指出金融危机对中国经济及政策产生了深远影响,十年来宏观调控在稳增长和防风险之间动态变化,市场化的改革开放进程也因金融危机的扰动被迫出现调整。毛振华提出,值此金融危机十周年之际,有必要对危机后中国经济应对得失进行反思,并在此基础上调整中国宏观经济政策,借此推动中国经济再调整、再出发。

On December 13, the 2019 China Credit Annual Conference hosted by China Chengxin Group was held in Hong Kong. Theme of the year was “the Balance of China’s Economic Policies under Multiple Challenges”. Experts, including Li Xiaojia, CEO of the HKEX Group, and Guan Tao, a well-known expert on RMB exchange rate in China attended the conference. Yabuli Chinese Entrepreneurs Forum Representatives, including Chen Dongsheng, Liang Jinsong, Zhang Wenzhong et al. participated in the discussion as well.Dr. Mao Zhenhua, founder of China Chengxin Group and chief economist of China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd,delivered a keynote speech -- "A Decade after the 2008 Financial Crisis: A Reflection on China’s Ten-year Macroeconomic Polices". He points out that the 2008 crisis has had a profound impact on China's economy and policies. In the post-crisis decade, China’s macroeconomic policy objectives shifted dynamically between Steady Growth and Risk Prevention, and market-oriented reform and opening up roadmap was forced to undergo certain adjustments due to the crisis. Mao Zhenhua believes that at a time when a decade has passed since the crisis, it is essential to reflect on China's post-crisis responses through adjustments in economic policies, and to consider re-adjusting policies in order to promote China's economic transition and to restart the course of reform and opening up.

毛振华在演讲中指出,金融危机对中国宏观政策产生了多方面的影响。一方面,十年来中国宏观调控在稳增长与防风险之间动态调整:金融危机后中国出台了“四万亿”等一系列经济刺激政策,并实施积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,随着中国经济企稳、宏观风险积聚,2016年下半年以来中国宏观调控重心转向防风险,逐步形成以稳增长、防风险为核心的双底线调控思路。另一方面,在金融危机的冲击下,中国改革开放路线图被迫调整,政府之手对资源配置的干预增强,在一定程度上偏离了市场化的改革方向。与此同时,伴随着金融危机后国内外经济形势的变化,中国对外政策也有所调整。

In his speech, Mao Zhenhua points out that the financial crisis has had an impact on China's macroeconomic policies in multiple ways. On the one hand, China’s macroeconomic policy objectives shifted dynamically between steady growth and risk prevention in the past decade: soon after the crisis, China introduced a series of economic stimulus policies, including a 4 trillion yuan ($585billion) stimulus plan, along with proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy. While China's economy stabilized, macroeconomic risks were accumulating. China's macroeconomic policy objective shifted toward risk prevention since the second half of 2016, and gradually formed a policy with dual bottom-line – steady growth and risk prevention. On the other hand, in order to cope with the crisis, China's market-oriented reform roadmap was forced to adjust, with political intervention strengthened in resource allocation process, deviating from the market-oriented reform direction to some extent. What is more, in accompany with changes in the domestic and international economic environment, China's foreign policy also adjusted.

毛振华分析,十年来中国宏观政策的调整有得有失。从积极的角度看,金融危机以来中国采取的一系列政策在保障中国经济平稳增长方面发挥了重要作用,中国经济在全球率先企稳,2010年超过日本成为第二大经济体,并于2013年超越美国成为第一大货物贸易国,为中国经济发展赢得了难得窗口期。但毛振华还提出,经济刺激政策也带来了多重风险,“债务—投资”驱动的经济增长模式导致债务风险不断累积,金融风险持续积聚。毛振华提醒,虽然2016年下半年以来采取的一系列防风险措施在一定程度上缓释了风险,但风险警报依然存在。尤为值得一提的是,2008年以来一系列国内经济政策和对外政策的主动、被动调整被美国等西方国家误读,导致美国对中国的认知和态度发生根本转变,在一定程度上成为中美贸易冲突的重要原因,导致中国经济运行的外部不确定性加大。

He further analyzes China’s gains and losses from the last decade adjustments in macroeconomic policy. From a positive perspective, a series of post-crisispolicies played an important role in ensuring China’s stable economic growth in the past decade, and stimulated China to take the lead in  global economic recovery. In 2010, China surpassed Japan to become the second largest economy, and later surpassed the United States as the largest trader of goods in 2013. It turned out that the 2008 financial crisis became a rare window for China’s economic growth, and even to have several crucial big leaps. On the other hand, he also highlights various risks after rounds of economic stimulus. The “debt-investment”-driven economic growth model has led to a constant accumulation of debt risks and financial risks. Although a series of risk-prevention-oriented measures were adopted since the second half of 2016, which relieved the economic risks to some extent, risks still stand out perilously. Particularly, it is worth mentioning that China’s series of adjustments since 2008, either actively or passively, has been misread by the United States and other Western countries, leading to a fundamental change in their perception and attitude toward China, which later became an important factor leading to the Sino-U.S. trade conflictand increasing external uncertainties for China’s economic development.

在演讲中,毛振华还对当前中国经济形势与政策进行了分析。毛振华分析,在内部经济下行压力加大、外部大国博弈导致不确定性因素上升的背景下,2018年中国经济政策再次调整:稳增长再次被置于重要位置,货币政策边际宽松,财政政策力度加大,金融从“严监管”转向“稳监管”。但毛振华提醒,非常规的调控政策短期可视经济情况采用,但要把握好度,不能走“债务—投资”驱动经济的老路。

He then analyzes China’s current economic environment and policies. He sees that against the background of internal economic downturns and increasing external uncertainties caused by the big power games, China’s economic policy re-adjusted in 2018: “steadygrowth” was once again placed at a vital position, monetary policy got loosen, fiscal policy got strengthened, and “strict regulation” shifted to “steady regulation” in the financial sector. However, he draws attention to the downside of excessive intervention. Unconventional regulative policies, he says, can be helpful in short-term depending on specific economic conditions, but they require proper handling. A return to the old path of “debt-investment”driven model should be prevented.

毛振华表示,今年恰逢金融危机十周年和改革开放四十周年,中国有必要对金融危机以来的经济应对措施进行认真反思,总结得失,以史为鉴,以此推动中国经济和政策再调整、再出发。他表示,在对外政策上,中国应在坚持核心利益的基础上理性应对外部环境变化,适当调整外交策略,进一步扩大开放,缓释逆全球化思潮泛起对中国经济的冲击;在对内政策上,中国需要坚持市场化的改革开放之路,通过减税降费、扶贫攻坚等方式提升企业和困难群体的投资、消费能力,进一步扩大内需,同时弘扬和保护企业家精神,鼓励民营经济发展,增强中国经济发展的内生动力。

Mao Zhenhua says this year coincides adecade of 2008 financial crisis with the fortieth anniversary of China’sinitiation of Reform and Opening-up Policy. At this new start point, it is crucial for China to reflect on its post-crisis policy course, to summarize the gains and losses, and to learn from history in order to re-adjust policies and promote future economic development. He recommends that on foreign policy, besides promoting nation’s core interests, China should rationally respond to changes in external environment, adjust diplomatic strategies accordingly, make strides in opening up, relieve tensions, and cushion the impact of anti-globalization on China’s economy. As to internal policies, China needs to adhere to the market-oriented road of reform and opening up, to increase investment of enterprises and consumption capacity of needy households through polices such as tax cuts, to raise domestic demands, to promote and protect entrepreneurship, and to encourage the development of the private economy in order to enhance the endogenous driving forces of China's economic development.